scrum problem sprint

What do you know about team velocity, and using that reflective metric to forecast completion of future work?

I would read up on that subject, and the answer should then make sense to you.

Also, the Scrum Guide does not recognize velocity, so it is my guess that the above exam question originates from one of the many "offshoot" Scrum organizations/sites. You should be wary of any information such sites provide regarding Scrum.

4 Sprints *could* be a valid answer, and it's certainly possible to work back from this and deduce one or more methods which *would* give this result.

But what significance does the stated team size, or being a Scrum Master, have to the velocity calculation?

Hey ana,
the average is 12.5 points, so in 4 sprint the team will probably achieve around 50 points. 3 are not enough as it adds up only to 37.5

Michael

The average of last 3 sprints is 13. To complete 42 points you need 3.23 sprints which is nothing but 4.

Hi,

The average velocity is  12.5 points,

remaining Points are 42

So, 42 /12.5 = 3.36  ... make it round so 4

so in 4 sprints, the team will achieve all points ++. 3 are not enough 

Subha

While 4 seems like the most logical answer, what I don't like about this question is this: why would the Scrum Master be forecasting how many Sprint remain?  

Recent sprints have shown that it is possible that the team deliver 10 points worth of work. This has happened twice, so we should not consider it a fluke.

Therefore, it is possible that the next 4 Sprints all result in 10 points of work being delivered, which would not be enough to reach the milestone of 42 points. There is therefore a chance (albeit a small one) that based on historic data, the milestone will only be reached after (or during) the fifth Sprint.

Conversely, it has been proven that 14 or more points worth of work may be delivered in a Sprint. This has actually happened three times. So there is a reasonable chance that the milestone will be reached within three Sprints.

It can be helpful to convey the likelihood of such outcomes. So rather than just taking the average, you could say the forecast is that the milestone will be reached within 3 to 5 Sprints.

Techniques, such as the Monte Carlo method can be used to simulate the chance of each potential outcome, based on historic data.

Also, don't forget that however you model it, you can only make a prediction. No amount of calculation can give you 100% certainty.