Contradictory questions in open assessment
I just took the scrum with kanban open assessment, and found that 2 questions are seemingly contradictory. I will post the questions and feedback responses here, and if you can explain to me why these answers are given, I'd appreciate that.
True or False: Work Item Age is a leading indicator for the length of the Scrum Team’s feedback loop for that (in progress) item.
Answer: True
Feedback: If an item is aging quite a bit it is certainly an indication that it’s cycle time will be high. Cycle time throughout the team’s definition of Workflow can also be considered the length of the team’s feedback loop.
True or False: Cycle time is a direct leading indicator for the length of the Scrum Team’s feedback loop for a product backlog item.
Answer: False
Feedback: Cycle time is a lagging indicator - you only know the cycle time after the PBI reached the end of the team’s definition of Workflow. A Service Level Expectation (SLE) is based on cycle time scatter plot percentile lines.
According to the Kanban Guide for Scrum Teams:
Cycle Time: The amount of elapsed time between when a work item "starts" and when a work item "finishes."
Work Item Age: The amount of elapsed time between when a work item "started" and the current time.
The Cycle Time of an item is only known after work on it has finished. So it's a lagging indicator. You can only find out the Cycle Time when there is no further option to keep working or stop working on the item.
But for the Work Item Age, this exists before work on an item has finished. If work started on an item 4 days ago, its Work Item Age is approximately 4 days. If most items are further progressed or perhaps finished within 3 days, then you already know this item is moving slowly. Before you wait for work on this item to be finished, you have the option to abandon that work, or at least to plan for a later than previously expected delivery.
2 questions are seemingly contradictory
Cycle time itself is not a leading indicator, but work item age is a leading indicator for what a team’s cycle time (i.e. the length of the feedback loop) is likely to be.
In other words, cycle time cannot be derived as a leading indicator from age, because age would only permit a forecast to be made. The situation could change by the end of the Sprint.
Both the questions would have had the same answer if you changed the word leading to lagging in second question.
Leading as in leading indicator = likely/forecasted based on given empirical data (Work Item age)
Lagging as in lagging indicator = certain/confirmed based on actual data. (Cycle time)
The second question would have been right if the definition was correct, but it instead said leading.
Take care to make a distinction between "average cycle time" and "cycle time". The latter applies to a very specific PBI. With that in mind, the answer to the questions are maybe better understandable.
Take care to make a distinction between "average cycle time" and "cycle time".
Cycle time at a specific percentile may also be relevant; particularly if there is a need to talk in probabilistic terms, such as with a Service Level Expectation.