Epic Completion Estimate
Hi there,
I am trying to quantify the time to complete an epic in jira. All the stories within the epic are stories and have been pointed. I have historical sprint velocity and capacity metrics, but I just don't know how I can use that data to measure the time to complete the epic. I'd like to put a date to complete the epic based on a calculation.
Thanks,
Karina
How far down the Product Backlog do you have to go until there are no more stories for that epic? What does that tell you, given the current rate of progress?
Is the Product Owner satisfied with that ordering, and with the value which would be delivered incrementally before the epic is completed?
Can the Definition of Done be relied upon to give an accurate picture of the standard needed for work to be complete?
You could use a burn up chart to visualize a release forecast, since you have everything you need (Product Backlog estimates and velocity). The x axis would be Sprints, the y axis points. When the completed points per Sprints plus the projected velocity for future Sprints line intersect with the total size of the Product Backlog line, that is your release date. You can google a burn up chart to get a picture of this.
For the forecast consider a cone of uncertainty to plot out velocity +/- a certain percentage.
Keep in mind that no matter how well the Scrum Team has executed in the past, surprises happen and the future is still unpredictable.
Are you familiar with the Monte Carlo method for forecasting?
It is usually used on historical throughout (total number of items per sprint/time period), but could be used on historical velocity.
If you use the separate historic outcomes in the Monte Carlo simulation, instead of just multiplying an average velocity by time, you will get forecasts at various levels of certainty.
It is usually used on historical throughout
That should of course be throughput... [thanks, autocorrect!]
But just to take things even further (and because you specifically mentioned time), it might also be worth checking out the recent discussion about using Kanban with Scrum, and this video: https://vimeo.com/146545310
All the stories within the epic are stories and have been pointed. I have historical sprint velocity and capacity metrics
if you have all the stories pointed and you know your sprint Velocity, then just divide your points by your velocity
Points/Velocity = number of sprints
For example, if your stories equal 95 points and your sprint velocity is 25
95/25 = 3.8.
Your forecast is 4 Sprints