Reflecting on Two Decades of Agile
Over 20 years ago, while working as a Software Engineer on an Air Defense System, I found myself in a traditional waterfall context. Yet, within this rigid framework, my team and I began exhibiting Agile behaviors—cross-functionality, curiosity, and a relentless drive to adapt our ways of working. We instinctively understood the value of minimizing feedback loops and ensuring our work was always "Done," despite the constraints of the project’s scope, deadlines, and budget. Our team leader was educated with Scrum and wanted to see if it would work. So he began our education, teaching us self-management and relentless focus on Done. At that time, Agile practices and mindset were kept hidden from management to protect the little self-management we had. The fear was that once management would get a hold of it, they would screw it up.
As Agile gained momentum, I witnessed firsthand how the industry transformed. Initially, Agile was a grassroots movement, driven by developers seeking to improve collaboration and technical practices. We focused on learning how to work better together, balancing our efforts between personal skill development and team cohesion. The early days were about experimenting with new ways of working—finding out what worked in practice, even if it meant going against the grain of established processes.
As the years went by, the Agile mindset began to permeate higher levels of organizations. Management layers, once skeptical or unaware, started to recognize the potential of Agile to drive significant improvements across the entire enterprise. This led to large-scale transformations where the principles of Agile were applied beyond development teams, often with varying degrees of success. The role of the Scrum Master emerged as a critical one, transitioning from a team facilitator to an organizational change agent. Agile Coaching became a profession, with Scrum Masters who had real-world experience guiding large-scale Agile transformations.
At one point, the focus shifted twoards the Product Ownership, ensuring that teams were not only building the right thing but also delivering value effectively. This period also saw the rise of DevOps, which further integrated Agile practices with operational processes, shortening the feedback loop between development and deployment.
We also embraced practices that emerged from different fields such as Product, UX, Kanban, Professional Coaching; we built a diverse toolkit that helps tackle most situations with grace.
However, as Agile expanded, so did the challenges. The need to scale Agile practices across large organizations led to the creation of various scaling frameworks. These frameworks brought structure to Agile at scale but also sparked debates about what truly remained "Agile" and what was simply a rebranded version of traditional management practices. The industry was forced to evolve rapidly, with new skills and knowledge required to navigate these complexities.
All to say, today we're a galaxy away from the early days with a ton of experience that updated our understanding on the complexity of developing new products and the need of team structures, automatisation and relentless focus on the client needs.
The Current State: A Culture of Support
Today, Agile and Scrum are nearly ubiquitous, yet challenges remain. Despite widespread adoption, many organizations still focus on internal metrics and output rather than outcomes and user-centric goals. During training sessions, I often hear participants express frustration with how Agile is practiced within their organizations. There’s a noticeable gap between what is taught and what is applied.
The Agile community, however, remains strong and supportive. It’s encouraging to see how practitioners come together to help each other navigate these challenges. The cultural shift towards Agile thinking has been profound, influencing how we approach work, collaboration, and continuous improvement.
The Future: Embracing Complexity and Change
Looking ahead, I foresee a renewed focus on certainty, optimization, and individual performance metrics. I see this because developing self-management is extremely hard, too slow for some and it'll be easier to revert back to old habits of command and control. This shift could divert attention away from user-centric goals and outcome-based measures, a trend that could undermine the very principles that have made Agile successful. To counteract this, I believe the Agile community must remain vigilant, using tools like Evidence-Based Management to ensure that we stay aligned with our core values while providing the metrics and proof of progress for those who need it.
The future of Scrum and Agile will involve "transcending and including" past practices, as Ken Wilber’s Integral Theory suggests. We must carry forward what was constructive from our waterfall days—such as decomposition and optimization—while continuing to focus on outcomes and collaboration. Future professionals will need to seamlessly navigate the intersections of business, technology, and collaboration, using both old and new tools to drive success. A recent example of this is the criticism offered to Story Point Estimation. A practice meant to take in account uncertainty using relative estimation, easy to game, unprecise and often used as a performance tool. Within that practice, the group conversation remain useful to nurture shared understanding but the output of points may be misused. So we kept the group conversation and replaced the forecasting tool with the Montecarlo statistical calculus. This is an example of "Transcend and Include" applied on a hands-on practice for forecasting.
My colleagues, such as Nigel Thurlow and Rolland Flemm, are pioneering approaches to help organizations better assess their current state so they can make more informed decisions. Nigel's work with The Flow System and Rolland's capability mapping focus on understanding the present reality without prescribing a fixed solution. This approach empowers clients to choose the most suitable path forward, whether it involves adopting specific elements from established frameworks or crafting a unique strategy that meets their needs. This work is crucial for ensuring that Agile transformations are not just theoretical but deeply rooted in the practical realities of each organization.
The Role of Technology and Cultural Shifts
Emerging technologies like AI will significantly influence the evolution of Agile practices. AI will become a valuable companion for professionals, aiding in everything from generating ideas to optimizing workflows. This technological shift will enhance our ability to learn and adapt quickly, making Agile even more dynamic.
Culturally, we’re already seeing a divide between organizations that have fully embraced Agile and those that are still struggling with traditional hierarchies. This gap will likely widen, with Agile organizations outpacing their less adaptive counterparts. Job candidates will reflect this cultural split, with some promoting certainty and hierarchical order, while others advocate for experimentation, curiosity, and growth.
My Vision and Advice for Practitioners
My vision for the future of Scrum and Agile is to continue teaching and coaching collaboration structures, helping individuals find their path within these frameworks. Scrum’s simplicity is its strength, but many still haven’t unlocked its full potential. My role is to mentor and guide others as they navigate this transformative journey.
For current and future practitioners, my advice is simple: start small, master the basics, and then expand your knowledge by integrating the right practices and mindsets for your evolving environment. As your context changes, revisit the fundamentals to ensure you can propel yourself further, faster, and smoother.