Agile teams often struggle with how to size and forecast upcoming work. Flow metrics offer a simple, effective way to solve that problem without the headaches that come from traditional estimation methods. In fact, flow metrics can provide more accurate planning and forecasting than using points or hours—and they keep things agile, not bogged down in endless debates over estimates.
What Are Flow Metrics?
Flow metrics track the number of Product Backlog Items (PBIs) your team completes in each Sprint. The idea is simple: size your Product Backlog items so that the ordered items can be completed within a single Sprint. Then, start Sprinting. As your team works through each Sprint, you’ll gather data on how many PBIs they typically complete in a Sprint.
Over time, this data allows you to forecast future delivery. You can make educated predictions on how many PBIs will be completed in each Sprint based on past performance. (Pro tip: Use a probabilistic forecasting tool like Monte Carlo simulations, pioneered by Troy Magennis at FocusedObjective.com, to account for the likelihood of completing different numbers of PBIs per Sprint.)
Why Flow Metrics Work
You might be wondering: “How can this work if we don’t assign specific estimates—even points—to each item?” Here’s why it works: every team has a typical range of work they do. Some PBIs will be small; some will be large. But over time, the number of PBIs completed per Sprint will follow a general pattern for your team. This "flow" becomes predictable.
Unlike points or hours, which rely heavily on subjective estimates, flow metrics remove a layer of uncertainty. People often overestimate or underestimate the size of a task. But counting PBIs completed per Sprint is a much simpler, objective measure. It’s more stable because it reflects real work getting done rather than what we think will get done.
The Practical Benefits of Flow Metrics
In my experience, using flow metrics to track PBIs per Sprint is more accurate for forecasting than points or hours. I’ve used this approach to deliver large government contracts on time with a high degree of certainty. It helps the Product Owner make tough calls early in the process—deciding what work to include in a planned release and what to postpone.
By focusing on flow, you give your team the flexibility they need to respond to changing priorities while still delivering on time. And for teams tired of arguing about how many points something is worth, flow metrics simplify the whole process.
In Summary
Flow metrics offer a smarter way to plan, size, and forecast work for Agile teams. They keep things simple, cut down on overcomplicated estimations, and give you more accurate forecasts. By counting completed Product Backlog Items each Sprint, your team can focus more on delivering real value and less on debating the size of the work. If you're not already using flow metrics, it might be time to give them a try. You’ll find that it can make a world of difference in how you plan and deliver.
To learn more about flow metrics, sign up for Rebel Scrum's Professional Scrum with Kanban course. Professional Scrum with Kanban (PSK) focuses on how to use Kanban practices within Scrum, such as limiting work in progress and visualization.